The WSOP and Me.

Well, I am finally going to do it. I've decided it's time for me to try my luck in the greatest tournament series on the planet - the World Series of Poker. I'm going to play Event #16, the $1,500 Seven-Card Stud tournament on June 6th.

I feel like this is as good a time as any to take my shot. I have now been playing cards for almost five years. At one point in poker's history, that would be considered barely getting your feet wet. But with the advent of online poker, and the immense volume of poker strategy literature that is available these days, players can rather quickly gain a lifetime's worth of experience in a relatively short period of time. The speed of online poker, and the ability to play multiple tables at once, allows a player to see hands at a rate the old pros could never achieve. Simultaneously, poker books and articles are widely available, and allow a player to learn tricks and avoid traps that Doyle Brunson and T.J. Cloutier had to learn the hard way. (Incidentally, both of these guys have written influential poker books themselves.) The poker information out there allows us newer players to stand on the shoulders of giants, so to speak.

Do I think I'm ready for the challenge, or that I can really compete with the professionals for a bracelet? Yes and No. Or rather, No, and Yes. To play a WSOP event in 2009 has been one of my poker goals since at least 2007 (another being to play the Main Event in 2010). Now that the time is here, I can't honestly say that I'm a favorite to even make the money in an event. Furthermore, this will be the largest buy-in I have ever made into a single session of either cash or tournament poker. So I think there is a very real chance that the money on the line will affect my play negatively. Lastly, I really just can't shake the feeling that I'm just throwing away $1,500 by doing this. Do I really have the bankroll to potentially blow through a dime and a half in a few hours, and not miss it? No, I do not.

But I think the second question -- whether or not I can compete -- has a different answer. I do not consider myself a tournament specialist by any means. I greatly prefer to play cash games. But my tournament record is nothing to sneeze at. I find that I often play better in tournaments, as somehow I do a better job of reining in my loose-aggressive tendencies until they are needed. And I've crushed most seven-card stud games I've played in. Along with cash no-limit hold'em, it is one of the games in which I consider myself an expert.

Furthermore, I've taken some steps to improve my chances. Since I can only afford a low buy-in, I've decided to stay away from the no limit hold'em events. While I have the most experience playing that game, I know that there are thousands of other young guns out there who also play that game better than any other. But there aren't so many young guns who are aces at seven-stud. I consider myself pretty rare in that regard, as the average stud player is much older than 26. The game just is not as popular these days.

And since the smaller buy-in no limit events tend to have fields through the roof and are often lotteries, I've elected to play an event that historically has had tiny fields by comparison. Last year there were 381 entrants. Given the current recession, I expect that number to stay at about the same level.

Another advantage to playing a limit event as opposed to pot limit or no limit is that the effects of getting unlucky on one hand are limited, at least in the early rounds. Of course, as the blinds and antes increase, it can get to the point where you go broke in one hand in stud just like in no limit hold'em. But early on, the big coolers and bad beats won't hurt as much, and won't knock you out two seconds into the tournament.

This particular tournament is also good because I think a lot of the top pros will be tied up elsewhere. Event #16 starts at 5pm, but there is a $5,000 No Limit event that starts at noon the same day. With the higher buy-in, I'd expect several of the big names to be playing that tournament. I'm sure there will be some that bust out of the $5K really quickly, but hopefully that steams them up enough that they come over and play worse in the stud tourney. Even pros aren't completely immune to the effects of bad beats and extended sessions.

However, there are some factors that will be working against me in the event (outside of the obvious ones like my lack of experience in big events, lack of experience in stud tournaments as opposed to cash games, etc.). The hugest disadvantage is the sleep factor. Hundreds of thousands of World Series hopefuls have come to the big show, completely unprepared for the looooong, long hours required for these events. I have played a few long sessions in my life, but only a handful as long as this one rates to be if I survive the first day. The schedule says play will begin at 5pm and end at approximately 3am on Sunday. Then we're back at it at 2pm on Sunday!! I'll be doubly disadvantaged, because I am flying into Vegas Saturday morning at 8am (!), which means I'll have to wake up at about 5am to fly from Los Angeles.

It will take a LOT of discipline for me to rest up in my hotel room, and not try and get in on too much of the side action before the event. And, this being such a monumental step in my poker career, there is a significant chance that I'll be too amped up in the early afternoon to get any rest. So a large part of my survival will rest on my ability to avoid physically and mentally crashing at around 10pm. I think my odds of being at the top of my game in those crucial rounds are realistically slim.

I had originally wanted to play some satellites before the event, but now I'm a bit more ambivalent about it. I think winning a seat for $175 will allow me to play a lot more comfortably than ponying up the full amount. Even if I have to play two or three satellites to get the buy-in, I'll feel much better about the stakes. However, as mentioned above, all that poker action might worsen my play, as the number of hours played in one day continues to mount. I haven't decided yet what to do about it. I might play the event until I bust, and then play satellites and cash games afterwards to "retroactively" win my buy-in. Or something along those lines.

So is the whole thing worth it? I know that I will inevitably be pretty disappointed if/when I bust out of the tournament. That is the nature of tournaments -- the only person who doesn't get sent home is the winner. Even second place wishes they had done better.

But I think it's good that I am not really expecting much in the way of results. I mostly just want to get the experience under my belt, but still have a shot at winning something. This first step into a larger arena will give me a better idea of what to expect in World Series to come. And, if nothing else, I'm guaranteed to have at least a few stories to tell.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't play if I didn't think I had a chance to win.