20/40 Club?

Been reading online today about Stud hi cash games in Vegas. Assuming this game isn't defunct, it looks like there is a regular 20/40 that runs in the Bellagio. I also found out that it is considered by some to be a relatively soft seat ... and I've always told myself I'd play at Bellagio next time, next time. But now I see this, and for once I can afford the buy-ins. Hmmm. Intriguing.

Of course, to say that me playing 20/40 limit poker would be taking a shot is a GINORMOUS understatement. I would be shooting at the moon. I have never played higher than 4/8 before. This would be a huge jump for me. I'd have to be crazy to even consider it.

Almost as crazy as playing in a $1,500 WSOP event ...

Realistically, my chances of not going broke are probably a lot better playing 20/40 stud for an $800 buy-in than a $1,500 buy-in tournament. The reasons are several. One, I have much more experience playing stud cash games than stud tourneys. Two, the buy-in itself is a lot less ($200 is the minimum buy for 20/40). Three, while four winners can feed off of just two big losers in a cash game, only about 10% of the field gets paid in your typical multi-table tournament.

However, the upside of a tournament is of course MUCH larger than that of a cash game. If you happen to play well and catch good cards in a big tourney, you are looking at a terrific payday. Cash games tend to be more of a grind ... steady profit leading to a larger and larger bankroll over time. A multi-table tourney is like that speculative stock that has maybe a one percent chance of going through the roof, but mostly will either lose or break even. For a great player, cash games are like the bonds that may take the small loss here and there, but generally pay steady dividends over time.

So what kind of investor will I be feeling like this weekend?

I am more than a little tempted to forego Event #16 and put that $1,500 strictly towards cash games. I've heard advice along those lines come from more than one corner. However, when I tell those same guys that I mostly just want to fulfill my dreams of playing in the big time, they all give me this knowing, wistful smile ... and tell me they understand completely.

I kind of wish I hadn't told so many people that I was playing the WSOP now ... at this point I would feel rather sheepish if I backed out. But maybe it's just the wiser move. A better investment. Maybe I'm just getting nervous because the date is approaching and I feel under-prepared. Maybe I am just looking for an excuse to run back to the security blanket. I don't know what I'm going to decide to do four days from now ... I really don't.