Miscalculation

I had a bit of a setback on Wednesday night. Went and played some cash stud during offpeak hours (weeknights -EV) and got killed. I was doing a pretty good job of staying even, hanging with the tough grinders there at Commerce. But then I lost a big pot. Basically an idiot with a huge beard cold-called a 3bet on 5th street with a gutshot draw, even though the three betters had all just paired their door cards. I was 3betting my trip 7s against 8's showing and 2's showing, because 8's were dead. Beardo needed a 7 for his straight and stayed in even though I was SCREAMING that I had trip 7's. On the next street, the idiot bricked, the 2's caught my fourth 7, and I caught crap. Beardo grimaced and said that he needed a 7, and then mucked on 6th street. I ended up losing a big pot to a 2's full boat. Steamboat in my case. Ugh. Uncle Tilty showed up and then it was a slow bleed to death from that point on. I should know better than to go to Commerce on a weeknight ... game selection, ai ya.

So I wasn't sure where that left me. My goal of playing Wednesday night was to get myself off the fence and give myself that final shot of confidence (and extra cash) I needed to play in the WSOP. But losing made me more confused than ever. I have been telling more and more people that I'm playing the tourney, in an attempt to shame myself into playing. "You can't back out now, J ... then you'll have to tell everyone that you wussed out." I think it is probably going to work.

Phil Ivey (my favorite poker player other than myself ... awww screw it, I got a man-crush on this brotha) won his 6th bracelet last night after going three WSOP without winning one. Rumor has it that he tipped his entire winnings (over $96k for first place) to the dealer staff, presumably because he made so much money on sidebets. I know he has a standing bet with Daniel Negreanu that they have to pay each other $200k if one of them wins a bracelet. And Phil obviously had several other specific bets with various individuals ... he won't talk about the bets other than to acknowledge their existence. So it's all speculation, but I've heard he might have made as much as $10M in bracelet prop bets. Honestly, I would not put it past him. Ballin' ...


Anyway, I'm happy for Phil, but this is pretty devastating for the fantasy league wager with Billy. I was riding high Wednesday night when I found out Max Pescatori took 4th place in the $10k Stud, good for 8.5 points. But then Ivey snags a bracelet for 20 points, bringing the tally to Billy 21, Jamin 8.5. (Forrest earned Billy a point for taking ninth in the $40k event). And Daniel is currently chip-leading the $10k Mixed Championship through Day 1. This fantasy league could be a rout in the making ...

My new tentative plan is to try and satellite into the event. If it hadn't been for recent things that had come up financially (in addition to a downswing in cash games) I would be playing the event no question. But as it stands, I have about $2,300 total to gamble/eat/party with. That is cutting it somewhat close if I drop $1,500 on the tourney ... definitely a short roll for a three-day trip. The satellites are supposed to be really soft ... I'm confident I can win the entry. But it is sort of a matter of will I have enough time. I am arriving the day of. So chances are I'll have to play perhaps two satellites, AND register for the tourney. And sometimes the satellites have waits. I have pretty much given up on the napping idea. I think I will just have to hit the ground running.

Anyway, I know this post was a bit of a ramble ... not a literary achievement by any stretch of the imag. But, I gtg. Check out the Twitter update feed on the sidebar while I"m gone ------>

Peace!