Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Underestimating Opponents


I was playing in the $1/2 NL game at the Hustler today, up $35 on my $50 buy-in. I had been in the game for 20 minutes at this point, so being either up that much or down that much was pretty much expected. The game was pretty good, a few obvious fish, some players that are more solid. I hadn’t noticed any obvious Level 3’ers yet, so was feeling pretty at ease. I like the small game at the Hustler because I can make decent money at it without worrying too much about being outplayed. Outflopped or otherwise outdrawn, sure, but very rarely outplayed. So I typically don’t worry too much about the information I give off – I feel free to bet according to hand strength, visibly react to other players’ actions and the cards that come out, audibly mutter my observations to myself. There’s no need to be Chris Ferguson in the $1/2 NL – no one’s savvy enough to spot your tells anyway.

Right?

Two hands reminded me that there are exceptions to just about every rule. The first was kind of interesting. I raised second-to-act preflop with AT off. The guppy at the table called my raise cold from middle position, as did the big blind. Now, typically when the flop is dealt I’m looking at my opponents rather than the cards. See how they react to them, whether or not they got what they were looking for. This time I was watching the player from the big blind. I couldn’t watch both players from my seat, and the big blind was the tightest guy at the table, so his overcall concerned me. Well, I turned to him to get my read, and I was flabbergasted to find him already staring right back at me. He was doing exactly what I was doing – trying to get a read and see if I had connected with the flop. We seriously locked eyes for a good seven seconds before the dealer nudged him with a quiet “Check or bet, sir?” Finally the guy looked over at the flop and checked. It contained an ace, so I bet out. The rest of the hand wasn't that spectacular, I was just blown away because it was the first time I’d seen that at this level at the Hustler.

About a round later, another guy at the table surprised me in similar fashion. I picked up J7 offsuit in the small blind and was ready to muck it before the action even came to me. There were several callers, and I half mucked before I realized I was halfway in already. I looked at my cards again to make sure I had the suits down and tossed in the extra chip. The big blind checked.

The flop was nice, Q-J-7 and two-toned giving me bottom two pair. I bet out $7, hoping someone that someone hit the queen and hoping to make players pay to hit their flush or straight draws. In a seven-handed pot, someone had to have something. One guy called from late position, everyone else folded. Oh well. The turn was an offsuit trey – beautiful card. I figured the guy wasn’t going anywhere with a queen or a strong draw, but he also didn’t seem to have a strong enough hand to bet if I checked it, so I bet out another $15.

The guy goes into the think tank, and starts to puzzle it out. “Hmmmm, you called before the flop,” he says, “but you almost folded. What could you do that with? You almost fold from the small blind, check your cards, and then come out betting strong on the flop. You must have flopped two pair … a bad-looking hand like jack-seven. Yeah, that’s what you have, jack-seven. I fold.” He mucks his AQ face up.

All I could do was smile and show him how great a read he'd just made. His analysis sounded exactly like what I would work myself through in the opposite situation. Again, I had underestimated an opponent’s poker acumen and this time is had cost me. Shot myself in the foot.

So what’s the lesson for me? Take the pros’ advice and stop giving away information. Like shooting free throws, pick a routine and stick with it.

Awesome, another hole in my game that needs pluggin'.

That’s what makes poker fun.

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