Friday, June 5, 2009

I'm Coke'd Up

I.e., full of Coke Zero and Twix bars.

Through certain scientific processes, I have determined that 5CZ + 3TwB => Unholy Crapola. It also means jitters like a mofo. I pulled yet another all-nighter last night, and for once it is actually kicking my ass. I have heard most human beings suffer side effects from lack of sleep ... but I don't recall ever having experienced them. Maybe I'm just getting older and losing my extra-terrestrial powers.

On the positive side of things, I am as pumped as ever to play the WSOP. I have decided to do it, once and for all. I think. At least right now I see myself as just a step away from being king of the poker world. I'm about to take Las Vegas by storm. People will be calling me the next Phil Ivey within 72 hours.

They said there would be hallucinations ... delusions of grandeur ...

So where does that leave us? Obviously if I'm making millions every day playing cards, I'll have little to no time to write down my random thoughts. The blog will have to become history, unless Billy decides to take it up again. This could be farewell, dear lone reader!

Deep breath, and ... back to reality. I am heading home to get some much needed sleep. I am friggin' ripe right now ... haven't showered or shaven in three days. It's time to pack my bags, get some TLC from The Wife (backdoor outs of that happening ... enjoy the double entendre, hey-o!), and ship out to the City of Shattered Dreams. It's Las Vegas, bitch! I can't wait!

Miscalculation

I had a bit of a setback on Wednesday night. Went and played some cash stud during offpeak hours (weeknights -EV) and got killed. I was doing a pretty good job of staying even, hanging with the tough grinders there at Commerce. But then I lost a big pot. Basically an idiot with a huge beard cold-called a 3bet on 5th street with a gutshot draw, even though the three betters had all just paired their door cards. I was 3betting my trip 7s against 8's showing and 2's showing, because 8's were dead. Beardo needed a 7 for his straight and stayed in even though I was SCREAMING that I had trip 7's. On the next street, the idiot bricked, the 2's caught my fourth 7, and I caught crap. Beardo grimaced and said that he needed a 7, and then mucked on 6th street. I ended up losing a big pot to a 2's full boat. Steamboat in my case. Ugh. Uncle Tilty showed up and then it was a slow bleed to death from that point on. I should know better than to go to Commerce on a weeknight ... game selection, ai ya.

So I wasn't sure where that left me. My goal of playing Wednesday night was to get myself off the fence and give myself that final shot of confidence (and extra cash) I needed to play in the WSOP. But losing made me more confused than ever. I have been telling more and more people that I'm playing the tourney, in an attempt to shame myself into playing. "You can't back out now, J ... then you'll have to tell everyone that you wussed out." I think it is probably going to work.

Phil Ivey (my favorite poker player other than myself ... awww screw it, I got a man-crush on this brotha) won his 6th bracelet last night after going three WSOP without winning one. Rumor has it that he tipped his entire winnings (over $96k for first place) to the dealer staff, presumably because he made so much money on sidebets. I know he has a standing bet with Daniel Negreanu that they have to pay each other $200k if one of them wins a bracelet. And Phil obviously had several other specific bets with various individuals ... he won't talk about the bets other than to acknowledge their existence. So it's all speculation, but I've heard he might have made as much as $10M in bracelet prop bets. Honestly, I would not put it past him. Ballin' ...


Anyway, I'm happy for Phil, but this is pretty devastating for the fantasy league wager with Billy. I was riding high Wednesday night when I found out Max Pescatori took 4th place in the $10k Stud, good for 8.5 points. But then Ivey snags a bracelet for 20 points, bringing the tally to Billy 21, Jamin 8.5. (Forrest earned Billy a point for taking ninth in the $40k event). And Daniel is currently chip-leading the $10k Mixed Championship through Day 1. This fantasy league could be a rout in the making ...

My new tentative plan is to try and satellite into the event. If it hadn't been for recent things that had come up financially (in addition to a downswing in cash games) I would be playing the event no question. But as it stands, I have about $2,300 total to gamble/eat/party with. That is cutting it somewhat close if I drop $1,500 on the tourney ... definitely a short roll for a three-day trip. The satellites are supposed to be really soft ... I'm confident I can win the entry. But it is sort of a matter of will I have enough time. I am arriving the day of. So chances are I'll have to play perhaps two satellites, AND register for the tourney. And sometimes the satellites have waits. I have pretty much given up on the napping idea. I think I will just have to hit the ground running.

Anyway, I know this post was a bit of a ramble ... not a literary achievement by any stretch of the imag. But, I gtg. Check out the Twitter update feed on the sidebar while I"m gone ------>

Peace!

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Slim to None

This is approximately what I look like when I'm dressed for work everyday.



Not much to look at, but I guess some women do still go for the whole business suit thing. I would have to admit that I dress a lot better than the salary I make would lead you to expect. Nevertheless, I was more than a little surprised this morning when, as I headed down the elevator with The Wife, a mildly chesty, 30-something blonde saunters in and begins to openly flirt with me. Completely disregards that I'm with The Wife. Maybe this one just has a thing for donkeys and can't help herself ... hmmmm.

But I quickly realize that this is a lose-lose situation for me. I am drawing completely dead here.

I'm happily married, so there is absolutely no chance of anything happening with the blonde. But of course The Wife is still going to make sure I hear about this little encounter ... probably for a long time to come. So even though the circumstances were completely beyond my control, and I did nothing wrong whatsoever, I am still going to be punished somehow. I didn't even get my money's worth by flirting back with the chick.

I realized that my Vegas plans are a bit of a lose-lose as well. If I play the tournament, and (likely) bust out, I may kick myself for not just playing cash games or smaller tournaments. However, if I DO play cash games and still get reamed, then I'll really kick myself for not taking a shot in the tourney. Once again, it's like if I'm going to lose I might as well get my money's worth.

Was that too much of a stretch? Did my analogy hold water? If not, no big deal. I really just wanted to try and use that donkey picture somehow ... it's just so appropriate.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

20/40 Club?

Been reading online today about Stud hi cash games in Vegas. Assuming this game isn't defunct, it looks like there is a regular 20/40 that runs in the Bellagio. I also found out that it is considered by some to be a relatively soft seat ... and I've always told myself I'd play at Bellagio next time, next time. But now I see this, and for once I can afford the buy-ins. Hmmm. Intriguing.

Of course, to say that me playing 20/40 limit poker would be taking a shot is a GINORMOUS understatement. I would be shooting at the moon. I have never played higher than 4/8 before. This would be a huge jump for me. I'd have to be crazy to even consider it.

Almost as crazy as playing in a $1,500 WSOP event ...

Realistically, my chances of not going broke are probably a lot better playing 20/40 stud for an $800 buy-in than a $1,500 buy-in tournament. The reasons are several. One, I have much more experience playing stud cash games than stud tourneys. Two, the buy-in itself is a lot less ($200 is the minimum buy for 20/40). Three, while four winners can feed off of just two big losers in a cash game, only about 10% of the field gets paid in your typical multi-table tournament.

However, the upside of a tournament is of course MUCH larger than that of a cash game. If you happen to play well and catch good cards in a big tourney, you are looking at a terrific payday. Cash games tend to be more of a grind ... steady profit leading to a larger and larger bankroll over time. A multi-table tourney is like that speculative stock that has maybe a one percent chance of going through the roof, but mostly will either lose or break even. For a great player, cash games are like the bonds that may take the small loss here and there, but generally pay steady dividends over time.

So what kind of investor will I be feeling like this weekend?

I am more than a little tempted to forego Event #16 and put that $1,500 strictly towards cash games. I've heard advice along those lines come from more than one corner. However, when I tell those same guys that I mostly just want to fulfill my dreams of playing in the big time, they all give me this knowing, wistful smile ... and tell me they understand completely.

I kind of wish I hadn't told so many people that I was playing the WSOP now ... at this point I would feel rather sheepish if I backed out. But maybe it's just the wiser move. A better investment. Maybe I'm just getting nervous because the date is approaching and I feel under-prepared. Maybe I am just looking for an excuse to run back to the security blanket. I don't know what I'm going to decide to do four days from now ... I really don't.

WSOP Fantasy League

This is my first time trying this. It was kind of a last-minute deal ... I asked Billy the day before Event #2** if he was interested in gambling, and of course he said yes. So just like that, we've got ourselves a heads-up fantasy league.

Each of us made a prioritized list of players we would choose, and then we flipped a coin to see whose list would kick off the draft. The way I run in coinflip situations, it should be no surprise that Billy was able to select Phil Ivey as the number one overall draft pick. But I was okay with that, because my first choice was also a Phil -- this one of the Hellmuth variety. In fact, I was able to get my first eight picks through no problem. Our complete lists are below ...

Jamin - Urteamcantspellpokr

Phil Hellmuth, Jr.
Bertrand Grospellier
Erik Seidel
Max Pescatori
Kathy Liebert
Nenad Medic
Andy Bloch
Shaun Deeb
Barry Greenstein
J.C. Tran
Matt Glantz
Mike Matusow
Roland De Wolfe
Michael DeMichele
David Williams


Billy - Guillermo de los Gringos

Phil Ivey
David Benyamine
Chris Ferguson
Daniel Negreanu
Tom Schneider
Erik Lindgren
John Phan
Scotty Nguyen
Michael Mizrachi
Allen Cunningham
David Tran
Ted Forrest
Marcel Luske
Shannon Shorr
Robert Mizrachi

Notable Cockblocks: I was barely able to pick up Andy Bloch ahead of Billy. I think it was a real coup to be able to get him so late in the draft (14th overall pick). The guy has a really great tournament record ... to wit, two WPT final tables and twenty WSOP cashes, including finishing runner-up to Chip Reese in the inaugural $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event over one of the toughest fields ever assembled. No bracelets yet, but in our league you get points for all final table finishes. So I think he'll turn out to be a solid earner.

Of course, there is another side to this. I really wanted Ted Forrest, but somehow I let him slip to 23rd overall!! The guy has five bracelets, and twenty-one WSOP cashes. He's also won two WPT titles on five final tables. This was a major mistake on my part, which has already come back to bite me in the ass. Through three completed events, Ted Forrest is so far the only drafted player to earn any points (by taking 9th place at the $40,000 buy-in WSOP 40th Anniversary Special). Grrrr, the Suicide King! The one that got away!


**We started counting at Event #2, because Event #1 was the Casino Employees tournament. I don't think either of us were planning to draft Andrew Cohen ... whoever he is.

Monday, June 1, 2009

"Mymymy Poker Face, My PoPoker Face"

"Who is this Lady Gaga I've been hearing so much about?" ~Ben "Superdome" Peters

"First prize at the World Series of Poker is a million bucks. Does it have my name on it? I don't know. But I'm gonna find out." ~Mike McDermott, Rounders
_ _

The $1,500 Stud tournament last year paid exactly $135,753 for first place. I've been secretly plotting what I'll do if I win that amount. Four C-class Mercedes, 675 Nintendo Wii's, and 271,506 McDonald's apple pies are all in the running.

After taxes, it's not really quit-your-job-and-turn-poker-pro money. But damn it, it's close. My workload lately has just been bananas, so I would have to think looooong and hard about walking away if I made a big score. Of course, such speculation is the definition of counting a chicken before it hatches. In actuality, I don't really think so highly of my stud game to expect to take down a major tournament against the pros on my very first try.

But I can dream.

At work, however, I have to keep up appearances and pretend that I have some interest in the tasks that I'm performing. In reality, I'm just going through the motions for a few more days until I hit the desert. My heart is in Vegas. Honestly, that's probably where the money would go if I did go deep in Event #16. The Wife and I are seriously considering buying a house out there. The prices of homes are ridiculously low in that area right now, especially compared to West Los Angeles, where we live. Buying property out there would definitely be on the table if I won. It can't really get much cheaper than it is now.

So at my job lately, it's all I can do to appear like I give a crap. It's my poker facade. I'm sure once I've gone broke and return to town with my tail between my legs, things will go back to normal. Yes, soon enough I'll be able to continue with the "f**king grind" that is my life. For now, though, the dream is alive.

Fired up! Ready to go!

My reading schedule is all out of whack, but I'm making some pretty good progress. I went ahead and picked up the Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide, and I thought Keith Sexton's piece about starting hands in tournament stud was excellent. I didn't think so highly, however, of David Grey's section. As mentioned previously, I read a review on it, and I would have to agree with the reviewer's assessment that Grey's teaching is just way too vague to be of much use. Hopefully, the other sections will justify the $30 I spent on it, whenever I get around to perusing them. So far I think I've gotten about $3 worth of value. Will update.

Last night, I went and played the 4/8 Stud at Commerce, then came home and read the Chip Reese section of SuperSystem. It was really encouraging to re-read that text after so long ... there were some tactics that I had just glossed over in the past, but which I had nonetheless been executing at the table. Things in the book that I had not highlighted before, but had somehow managed to learn through experience. Certain concepts made more sense to me now. So I'm starting to feel pretty confident about my game. I'm definitely NOWHERE NEAR a Ted Forrest or a John Hennigan, but right now I am pretty sure I'm currently getting the maximum out of my abilities.

(Sidebar: This is why it's recommended to read poker books after you are already somewhat familiar with a particular game. Sure, there are some books made especially for the complete novice. But even with those, I think you'll get more out of text if you already have a good grasp on the mechanics and basic rhythms of play. Then you can read up and plug some of the [inevitable] holes in your game. Play more, and then re-read. Rinse, and repeat. My two cents.)

Today on the bus to work, and on my lunch break, I've been reading the Sklansky text. This is an extremely dense book, and there are a lot of things I did not pick up on while reading through it before. They do a really good job of covering just about every situation that might arise in a seven-card stud cash game. Better put -- they provide enough examples of concepts and the different variations on those concepts that come up during gameplay that it's really easy to extrapolate their teachings to cover any hand of stud poker. Must read!

I've also been practicing on PokerStars with stud tournaments. I've played in two of them, and busted in each. Not a great sign. But these were low-stakes donkaments, with plenty of idiots who chased me down the river every time I picked up a good starting hand. I imagine the quality of play in a $1,500 tourney will be higher. Plus, I generally just do better in live games. There are so many small things that don't really translate to online play. Thus, I'm not too concerned about my lack of success on Stars. It's good practice just to see how play is affected by the rising blinds, how the inability to rebuy changes strategy, etc. ... I've experienced these things in hold'em tournaments but not in stud. The lack of many other ways to practice makes the frustration of online play kinda worth it.

That's about all I have to report. I blast off in five days, and it can't get here soon enough. It's taking a lot for me to resist playing in hold'em home games until the big day. But I'm busy enough at work that I can manage the urge ... I think.