I've gone over to the dark side.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Is this me?
Tao of Poker - Donkeys at the 2008 WSOP
I'm a fan of Pauly's blog, though I haven't really kept up with him with any regularity. The picture he paints of the $1,500 WSOP events is pretty bleak. Thousands of clueless donkeys being led to the slaughter, and then braying about their terrible luck to their loved ones during the walk of shame through the Amazon Room and back to their hotels. Hundreds of home game heroes and weekend warriors with dreams of poker glory filling their sad little heads. And the local Vegas pros who are only too willing to relieve the poor wretches of their precious bankrolls.
Naturally, I would like to think of myself as one of the winners. I have spreadsheets and logs that tell me that I'm a winning poker player. I've played at enough cardrooms and in enough house games to feel that I can go toe-to-toe with just about any low- to mid-stakes player the country can offer. I definitely think I have an edge in your typical donkament field. I would like to think that I'm different.
But this is the World Series of Poker.
And EVERYONE thinks they are different.
Probably the only way I'll find out what role I'll be playing in the Rio's annual Fish Festival (alternatively nicknamed "Slaughterhouse Rock") is to actually find out. Buy a seat and play in the damned thing. One tournament loss doesn't necessarily doom a poker player to the depths of obscurity forever, but one big win can certainly propel him to some ridiculous heights. I've already decided to take my shot, as stated in previous posts. But reading that Tao post today was pretty freakin' sobering. Quite the cautionary tale.
Forking over fifteen Benjamins isn't something I can take lightly just yet. So I'm going to have to try my best to make this an investment, and not just a charitable donation.
I'm a fan of Pauly's blog, though I haven't really kept up with him with any regularity. The picture he paints of the $1,500 WSOP events is pretty bleak. Thousands of clueless donkeys being led to the slaughter, and then braying about their terrible luck to their loved ones during the walk of shame through the Amazon Room and back to their hotels. Hundreds of home game heroes and weekend warriors with dreams of poker glory filling their sad little heads. And the local Vegas pros who are only too willing to relieve the poor wretches of their precious bankrolls.
Naturally, I would like to think of myself as one of the winners. I have spreadsheets and logs that tell me that I'm a winning poker player. I've played at enough cardrooms and in enough house games to feel that I can go toe-to-toe with just about any low- to mid-stakes player the country can offer. I definitely think I have an edge in your typical donkament field. I would like to think that I'm different.
But this is the World Series of Poker.
And EVERYONE thinks they are different.
Probably the only way I'll find out what role I'll be playing in the Rio's annual Fish Festival (alternatively nicknamed "Slaughterhouse Rock") is to actually find out. Buy a seat and play in the damned thing. One tournament loss doesn't necessarily doom a poker player to the depths of obscurity forever, but one big win can certainly propel him to some ridiculous heights. I've already decided to take my shot, as stated in previous posts. But reading that Tao post today was pretty freakin' sobering. Quite the cautionary tale.
Forking over fifteen Benjamins isn't something I can take lightly just yet. So I'm going to have to try my best to make this an investment, and not just a charitable donation.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Hollywood Swingin'
Gah! What a brutal couple of days bankroll-wise. Saturday I was debating whether or not I should play the cash games after a local home tournament. I ended up doing so, and proceeded to lose about $580 playing heads up and then three-handed. Both guys I can outplay pretty easily; one is far too loose and the other too tight. But the loose guy was hitting everything. Turning an out-kicked pair into two pair. Turning a lower pair into trips. Making all of his draws while I missed mine. Outflopping me with dominated hands. And so on ...
The tight guy was hitting on me too. On one hand, I flop top pair with the nut flush draw. He flops a set, and trap-calls my lead-out bet. I make my flush on the turn, and lead out again. He raises, I shove, and he calls. But, I get Greensteined when the Ace pairs on the river. Another time, his low flopped straight holds up against my bigger open-ender plus flush draw. Ai ya!
And this morning, I had to drop about $720 on dental care ... my insurance policy (a good one!) only covered half of my crown procedure. In hindsight, I might have been better off claiming I forgot my checkbook in the car and dodging payment until after the Vegas trip. But that would have required me to screen phone calls for the next few weeks, and ignore all the "courtesy" notices that come in the mail. Well, some time ago I decided that that portion of my life would be over. So I sucked it up and shelled out the cash then and there.
Nevertheless, now I'm stuck $1,300 and I still have a week and a half before I even get on the plane to Vegas. This will put a cramp in my side action, for sure. After paying for food and drink for three days in a city that is particularly well-designed to separate tourists from their hard-earned cash, I'm down to about $600 to play games other than Event #16 ... yikes!
I think it's time to either find some investors, or to make a quick score or three before I go ...
BTW: Until fairly recently, $600 would have been plenty of bankroll for me to have a great Vegas trip with plenty of gamble. Nowadays, it feels like chump change. I can't decide if that means I've progressed a lot or just become more of a degen.
The tight guy was hitting on me too. On one hand, I flop top pair with the nut flush draw. He flops a set, and trap-calls my lead-out bet. I make my flush on the turn, and lead out again. He raises, I shove, and he calls. But, I get Greensteined when the Ace pairs on the river. Another time, his low flopped straight holds up against my bigger open-ender plus flush draw. Ai ya!
And this morning, I had to drop about $720 on dental care ... my insurance policy (a good one!) only covered half of my crown procedure. In hindsight, I might have been better off claiming I forgot my checkbook in the car and dodging payment until after the Vegas trip. But that would have required me to screen phone calls for the next few weeks, and ignore all the "courtesy" notices that come in the mail. Well, some time ago I decided that that portion of my life would be over. So I sucked it up and shelled out the cash then and there.
Nevertheless, now I'm stuck $1,300 and I still have a week and a half before I even get on the plane to Vegas. This will put a cramp in my side action, for sure. After paying for food and drink for three days in a city that is particularly well-designed to separate tourists from their hard-earned cash, I'm down to about $600 to play games other than Event #16 ... yikes!
I think it's time to either find some investors, or to make a quick score or three before I go ...
BTW: Until fairly recently, $600 would have been plenty of bankroll for me to have a great Vegas trip with plenty of gamble. Nowadays, it feels like chump change. I can't decide if that means I've progressed a lot or just become more of a degen.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Self-Awareness
I'm up late in the wee hours of the morning. Supposed to be working, but instead I'm reading through some old blog posts that I wrote back in the day. It's really interesting to me. Some of these posts contain fairly deep insights and creative ways to think about (mainly) no limit hold'em. But others are overly simplified, and in some cases just plain wrong. I wonder how in the world I won the money that I did if I actually thought and played like some of the strategy-articles I wrote suggest. (At one point, I wrote something like "recognizing when you're on a lucky streak and when you are on an unlucky streak is a key to poker success." LOL, yikes!!) Maybe the poker games in which I played were just much softer than the ones I play in now.
Another thing that strikes me is how cocky I came off in a few of my posts. That aspect is rather embarrassing. I take some comfort in the fact that I am a lot more humble now than I was then, even though I am certainly a better player. I suppose now I recognize more of my weaknesses and limitations, and have a better grasp of what separates me from the true world-class players out there. I couldn't see these things before, because my knowledge was too limited. I had too many blinders on that had to be shed through trials on the green felt, before I saw how much better I could be (and still can be). I guess it's like they say -- the more you learn, the more you realize how much you don't know.
Now, I am a confident player. I know that my skills are as strong as ever, and that my level of experience and poker "wisdom" are finally starting to catch up with whatever natural abilities I've had all along. But even with that confidence, I'm better able to see areas for improvement. The arrogance has not been completely eradicated quite yet. However, now I think my self-awareness has improved to a point where I can better limit the effects of my shortcomings, and use my strengths to the maximum.
Reading through the posts, especially ones where I staked out a particular position on a poker topic, I have to smile. They remind me of some of the players I play with these days. Very solid players, but players that are unable to see beyond a particular set of beliefs. Players that don't even realize how limited and inside-the-box their thinking is.
I take heart from the fact that I can see a real progression from my very first posts from early 2006 all the way through my posts from late 2007. I think it bodes well for my future, and I'm looking forward to looking back once again a few years down the line from now. The upside to poker knowledge is infinite.
Another thing that strikes me is how cocky I came off in a few of my posts. That aspect is rather embarrassing. I take some comfort in the fact that I am a lot more humble now than I was then, even though I am certainly a better player. I suppose now I recognize more of my weaknesses and limitations, and have a better grasp of what separates me from the true world-class players out there. I couldn't see these things before, because my knowledge was too limited. I had too many blinders on that had to be shed through trials on the green felt, before I saw how much better I could be (and still can be). I guess it's like they say -- the more you learn, the more you realize how much you don't know.
Now, I am a confident player. I know that my skills are as strong as ever, and that my level of experience and poker "wisdom" are finally starting to catch up with whatever natural abilities I've had all along. But even with that confidence, I'm better able to see areas for improvement. The arrogance has not been completely eradicated quite yet. However, now I think my self-awareness has improved to a point where I can better limit the effects of my shortcomings, and use my strengths to the maximum.
Reading through the posts, especially ones where I staked out a particular position on a poker topic, I have to smile. They remind me of some of the players I play with these days. Very solid players, but players that are unable to see beyond a particular set of beliefs. Players that don't even realize how limited and inside-the-box their thinking is.
I take heart from the fact that I can see a real progression from my very first posts from early 2006 all the way through my posts from late 2007. I think it bodes well for my future, and I'm looking forward to looking back once again a few years down the line from now. The upside to poker knowledge is infinite.
Light Reading
To help me prepare for the stud event, I have decided to revisit what I consider the sacred texts of seven-card stud play. I know reading up before a major tournament probably seems routine to most amateur and semi-pro poker players out there (they're thinking DUH, or should I say durrrr?), but I'm trying my best to document my entire process of preparing for and playing this event. Afterward, the plan is to review what preparations seemed helpful and what things I would have been okay without. This should help me prepare better for next year's Series, and give my poker friends some tools to use in their eventual quests for bracelet glory. A little bit of analysis, as Phil Laak [1] would say, "for the television audience at home."
The book that first gave me an inclination to try my hand at seven-card stud was the late Chip Reese's section of the original Supersystem. His writing style is ridiculously easy for the beginner to digest, and yet includes enough advanced concepts that after reading through it once or twice, you will absolutely be able to hold your own in most stud cash games.
The other book that really shaped me as a rookie was Sklansky's Seven-Card Stud for Advanced Players. Most poker book enthusiasts will tell you that this is required reading for any intermediate stud player looking to improve his or her game. I would agree with them wholeheartedly. This book expands on many of the concepts that Reese's writings introduce, and also contains many ideas all its own.
I am currently re-reading Sklansky, with an eye toward finishing it by the middle of next week, and to read the Reese section by the end of next week. Then I'll have one more week to review all my notes on each before the trip. I am debating picking up the Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide. From the review I've read, David Grey's section on Stud tournaments is solid, but not spectacular. Worth it? I am also questioning if I really need to buy and read through Max Stern's Championship Stud in the short amount of time I have before the tournament. Debatable. But I generally prefer more information to less, so we'll see. (I've heard that the Razz section of Championship is one of the definitive texts, though.)
I also plan to skim through the manuals in the hours before the tournament, just as a bit of a warm-up exercise. A little last-minute cram, just like back in college. I think this preparation strategy has an edge over playing stud hands immediately before the event (which was another option I considered). This is because I want to have in my head the correct way to play certain hands -- not just the way that I typically play them. Although I feel I am pretty good at stud, even winning players have certain tendencies and weaknesses that cause them to lose equity over the long run, to not make as much as they could. Including the pros. Like Phil Ivey [2] said, "I don't know anybody who plays every hand perfect ... besides Phil Hellmuth." [3] So I'm thinking it'll be good to get outside of my own mind, to a certain extent.
The question is, will this cause me to over-think, and not trust the instincts that I've built up over all my hands of play? As Phil Gordon [4] said, “It doesn't take a rocket scientist to be good at poker. Anybody with a fourth-grade education can figure out the logic behind the odds and outs.” I guess if I bust out early or play some hands egregiously, there will be plenty of time to second-guess the method. For now, I think doing plenty of reading beforehand will be +EV.
The book that first gave me an inclination to try my hand at seven-card stud was the late Chip Reese's section of the original Supersystem. His writing style is ridiculously easy for the beginner to digest, and yet includes enough advanced concepts that after reading through it once or twice, you will absolutely be able to hold your own in most stud cash games.
The other book that really shaped me as a rookie was Sklansky's Seven-Card Stud for Advanced Players. Most poker book enthusiasts will tell you that this is required reading for any intermediate stud player looking to improve his or her game. I would agree with them wholeheartedly. This book expands on many of the concepts that Reese's writings introduce, and also contains many ideas all its own.
I am currently re-reading Sklansky, with an eye toward finishing it by the middle of next week, and to read the Reese section by the end of next week. Then I'll have one more week to review all my notes on each before the trip. I am debating picking up the Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide. From the review I've read, David Grey's section on Stud tournaments is solid, but not spectacular. Worth it? I am also questioning if I really need to buy and read through Max Stern's Championship Stud in the short amount of time I have before the tournament. Debatable. But I generally prefer more information to less, so we'll see. (I've heard that the Razz section of Championship is one of the definitive texts, though.)
I also plan to skim through the manuals in the hours before the tournament, just as a bit of a warm-up exercise. A little last-minute cram, just like back in college. I think this preparation strategy has an edge over playing stud hands immediately before the event (which was another option I considered). This is because I want to have in my head the correct way to play certain hands -- not just the way that I typically play them. Although I feel I am pretty good at stud, even winning players have certain tendencies and weaknesses that cause them to lose equity over the long run, to not make as much as they could. Including the pros. Like Phil Ivey [2] said, "I don't know anybody who plays every hand perfect ... besides Phil Hellmuth." [3] So I'm thinking it'll be good to get outside of my own mind, to a certain extent.
The question is, will this cause me to over-think, and not trust the instincts that I've built up over all my hands of play? As Phil Gordon [4] said, “It doesn't take a rocket scientist to be good at poker. Anybody with a fourth-grade education can figure out the logic behind the odds and outs.” I guess if I bust out early or play some hands egregiously, there will be plenty of time to second-guess the method. For now, I think doing plenty of reading beforehand will be +EV.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Staying at Planet Hollywood
Wow, how things change! I just booked a room for the weekend of the 6th at Planet Hollywood. The last time I blogged about poker (November 2007), PH was just about to have its grand opening. I played in their poker room once during last summer's WSOP, and I have to say I liked it. I only played for about an hour, but I'll never forget them giving everyone free donuts for breakfast. This was like manna from heaven at the time, as I had just pulled an all-nighter on the first leg of a 5-day/4-night stay, had already blown through a rather unhealthy percentage of my bankroll, and needed the carbs just to keep my eyes open until I could check into my hotel room later in the day ... but that's another story for another time. I have so many tales I wish I had blogged about from that summer, but I should be focusing on this World Series, not last year's! Suffice it to say that, even though I know many casinos offer little comps like that, the timing of that particular courtesy gave PH an A+ for first impressions.Another big change is that "the wife," as I occasionally referred to my longtime girlfriend, has now become The Wife. We got hitched three weeks ago (no, not in Vegas, though I somehow maneuvered my way into spending part of our honeymoon there, hehe) and she's coming along on this trip to root for me and such. I have mixed feelings about this. Obviously we are still newlyweds, and naturally we both want to maximize the honeymoon phase of our marriage as best we can. Spend as much time together as possible. Still, it does mean that I'll have one more thing to worry about. During our past trips to Glitter Gulch together, there has been some tension arising from the fact that I tend to want to play as much poker as possible when I'm there. It's just extremely torturous for me to be around such a high concentration of fish and not be allowed to cast a net! So in order for me to be happy, it means either her sweating me for hours on end (boring), or her finding other activities during the long stretches that I'm playing (lonely). Also, she likes to do things like going to shows and going to the trendy ultraclubs -- activities which tend to have the same peak hours as juicy poker games, and which cost me rather than earn me money. For one of us to be happy and the other not be miserable requires quite the balancing act.
The Wife has assured me that this trip will be different. "Since the main reason for the trip is for you to play poker, and I'm just tagging along," she says to me, "I'll totally be fine with you playing as much as you need to." And somehow, I actually believe her. I can't even count the number of times that she has surprised me by being a heckuva trooper, putting up with all kinds of less-than-ideal situations with nary a complaint. There's a reason she's The Wife now. I am giving her the benefit of the doubt for the time being.
And there is a side of me that really wants her to be there. I won't have any poker buddies out there (at least as of now) to encourage me to play well and to mourn my bad beats with me. Even though I am naturally a bit of a lone wolf, a part of me didn't want to step into such a large ring without having someone in my corner between the rounds. Hopefully The Wife can double as my "Mick." I think subconsciously, this came through when I was selecting my room. Las Vegas isn't doing so well with this economic downturn, and as such there are some hotels offering some sick deals on rooms right now.
Unfortunately, Planet Hollywood is not one of those hotels. I am paying about triple the bare minimum price to stay in Vegas that weekend, and I am sure on some level I chose PH because I knew The Wife was more likely to come along than if I had booked, say, Gold Coast, which is much cheaper and pretty much right next to the Rio (i.e., absurdly more practical), but perhaps not as glitzy. (Comma count = six on that last sentence. I'm, sorry, Mrs., Stave.)
On the bright side, PH is right smack in the middle of the Strip, and I can reach all kinds of great cash game action with a short stroll in either direction. Or just right downstairs. Furthermore, the stop for the twice-an-hour free shuttle to the Rio sits just between PH and Paris. So there's some practicality there too.
I only hope that the PH buffet is as scrumptious as its predecessor Aladdin's was back in the day. Hopefully, change turns out to be good.
P.S.
I realize that this blog has been all but defunct for quite some time now. It would be a MAMMOTH task to try and recap a year and a half's worth of poker action from both myself and my blogmate Billy in the few weeks before I launch for the WSOP. So what I'm going to try to do is to incorporate information that's relevant to current events into my postings as best I can. We'll see if it works or not.
And though I initially rejected it as wretched and vile, I am coming dangerously close to using Twitter. In some ways, it really makes a lot of sense as a way to provide regular updates on how an important event is going (assuming live-blogging is out of the question). So perhaps I'll create a Twitter account just for the WSOP, and then try my best to walk away from it forever. =) If I do become a Twittererererer, I'll let y'all know how to follow along.
Back to work for me now ... at 8pm. Ugh. This is why I need to strike it rich at poker.
And though I initially rejected it as wretched and vile, I am coming dangerously close to using Twitter. In some ways, it really makes a lot of sense as a way to provide regular updates on how an important event is going (assuming live-blogging is out of the question). So perhaps I'll create a Twitter account just for the WSOP, and then try my best to walk away from it forever. =) If I do become a Twittererererer, I'll let y'all know how to follow along.
Back to work for me now ... at 8pm. Ugh. This is why I need to strike it rich at poker.
The WSOP and Me.
Well, I am finally going to do it. I've decided it's time for me to try my luck in the greatest tournament series on the planet - the World Series of Poker. I'm going to play Event #16, the $1,500 Seven-Card Stud tournament on June 6th.
I feel like this is as good a time as any to take my shot. I have now been playing cards for almost five years. At one point in poker's history, that would be considered barely getting your feet wet. But with the advent of online poker, and the immense volume of poker strategy literature that is available these days, players can rather quickly gain a lifetime's worth of experience in a relatively short period of time. The speed of online poker, and the ability to play multiple tables at once, allows a player to see hands at a rate the old pros could never achieve. Simultaneously, poker books and articles are widely available, and allow a player to learn tricks and avoid traps that Doyle Brunson and T.J. Cloutier had to learn the hard way. (Incidentally, both of these guys have written influential poker books themselves.) The poker information out there allows us newer players to stand on the shoulders of giants, so to speak.
Do I think I'm ready for the challenge, or that I can really compete with the professionals for a bracelet? Yes and No. Or rather, No, and Yes. To play a WSOP event in 2009 has been one of my poker goals since at least 2007 (another being to play the Main Event in 2010). Now that the time is here, I can't honestly say that I'm a favorite to even make the money in an event. Furthermore, this will be the largest buy-in I have ever made into a single session of either cash or tournament poker. So I think there is a very real chance that the money on the line will affect my play negatively. Lastly, I really just can't shake the feeling that I'm just throwing away $1,500 by doing this. Do I really have the bankroll to potentially blow through a dime and a half in a few hours, and not miss it? No, I do not.
But I think the second question -- whether or not I can compete -- has a different answer. I do not consider myself a tournament specialist by any means. I greatly prefer to play cash games. But my tournament record is nothing to sneeze at. I find that I often play better in tournaments, as somehow I do a better job of reining in my loose-aggressive tendencies until they are needed. And I've crushed most seven-card stud games I've played in. Along with cash no-limit hold'em, it is one of the games in which I consider myself an expert.
Furthermore, I've taken some steps to improve my chances. Since I can only afford a low buy-in, I've decided to stay away from the no limit hold'em events. While I have the most experience playing that game, I know that there are thousands of other young guns out there who also play that game better than any other. But there aren't so many young guns who are aces at seven-stud. I consider myself pretty rare in that regard, as the average stud player is much older than 26. The game just is not as popular these days.
And since the smaller buy-in no limit events tend to have fields through the roof and are often lotteries, I've elected to play an event that historically has had tiny fields by comparison. Last year there were 381 entrants. Given the current recession, I expect that number to stay at about the same level.
Another advantage to playing a limit event as opposed to pot limit or no limit is that the effects of getting unlucky on one hand are limited, at least in the early rounds. Of course, as the blinds and antes increase, it can get to the point where you go broke in one hand in stud just like in no limit hold'em. But early on, the big coolers and bad beats won't hurt as much, and won't knock you out two seconds into the tournament.
This particular tournament is also good because I think a lot of the top pros will be tied up elsewhere. Event #16 starts at 5pm, but there is a $5,000 No Limit event that starts at noon the same day. With the higher buy-in, I'd expect several of the big names to be playing that tournament. I'm sure there will be some that bust out of the $5K really quickly, but hopefully that steams them up enough that they come over and play worse in the stud tourney. Even pros aren't completely immune to the effects of bad beats and extended sessions.
However, there are some factors that will be working against me in the event (outside of the obvious ones like my lack of experience in big events, lack of experience in stud tournaments as opposed to cash games, etc.). The hugest disadvantage is the sleep factor. Hundreds of thousands of World Series hopefuls have come to the big show, completely unprepared for the looooong, long hours required for these events. I have played a few long sessions in my life, but only a handful as long as this one rates to be if I survive the first day. The schedule says play will begin at 5pm and end at approximately 3am on Sunday. Then we're back at it at 2pm on Sunday!! I'll be doubly disadvantaged, because I am flying into Vegas Saturday morning at 8am (!), which means I'll have to wake up at about 5am to fly from Los Angeles.
It will take a LOT of discipline for me to rest up in my hotel room, and not try and get in on too much of the side action before the event. And, this being such a monumental step in my poker career, there is a significant chance that I'll be too amped up in the early afternoon to get any rest. So a large part of my survival will rest on my ability to avoid physically and mentally crashing at around 10pm. I think my odds of being at the top of my game in those crucial rounds are realistically slim.
I had originally wanted to play some satellites before the event, but now I'm a bit more ambivalent about it. I think winning a seat for $175 will allow me to play a lot more comfortably than ponying up the full amount. Even if I have to play two or three satellites to get the buy-in, I'll feel much better about the stakes. However, as mentioned above, all that poker action might worsen my play, as the number of hours played in one day continues to mount. I haven't decided yet what to do about it. I might play the event until I bust, and then play satellites and cash games afterwards to "retroactively" win my buy-in. Or something along those lines.
So is the whole thing worth it? I know that I will inevitably be pretty disappointed if/when I bust out of the tournament. That is the nature of tournaments -- the only person who doesn't get sent home is the winner. Even second place wishes they had done better.
But I think it's good that I am not really expecting much in the way of results. I mostly just want to get the experience under my belt, but still have a shot at winning something. This first step into a larger arena will give me a better idea of what to expect in World Series to come. And, if nothing else, I'm guaranteed to have at least a few stories to tell.
Nevertheless, I wouldn't play if I didn't think I had a chance to win.
I feel like this is as good a time as any to take my shot. I have now been playing cards for almost five years. At one point in poker's history, that would be considered barely getting your feet wet. But with the advent of online poker, and the immense volume of poker strategy literature that is available these days, players can rather quickly gain a lifetime's worth of experience in a relatively short period of time. The speed of online poker, and the ability to play multiple tables at once, allows a player to see hands at a rate the old pros could never achieve. Simultaneously, poker books and articles are widely available, and allow a player to learn tricks and avoid traps that Doyle Brunson and T.J. Cloutier had to learn the hard way. (Incidentally, both of these guys have written influential poker books themselves.) The poker information out there allows us newer players to stand on the shoulders of giants, so to speak.
Do I think I'm ready for the challenge, or that I can really compete with the professionals for a bracelet? Yes and No. Or rather, No, and Yes. To play a WSOP event in 2009 has been one of my poker goals since at least 2007 (another being to play the Main Event in 2010). Now that the time is here, I can't honestly say that I'm a favorite to even make the money in an event. Furthermore, this will be the largest buy-in I have ever made into a single session of either cash or tournament poker. So I think there is a very real chance that the money on the line will affect my play negatively. Lastly, I really just can't shake the feeling that I'm just throwing away $1,500 by doing this. Do I really have the bankroll to potentially blow through a dime and a half in a few hours, and not miss it? No, I do not.
But I think the second question -- whether or not I can compete -- has a different answer. I do not consider myself a tournament specialist by any means. I greatly prefer to play cash games. But my tournament record is nothing to sneeze at. I find that I often play better in tournaments, as somehow I do a better job of reining in my loose-aggressive tendencies until they are needed. And I've crushed most seven-card stud games I've played in. Along with cash no-limit hold'em, it is one of the games in which I consider myself an expert.
Furthermore, I've taken some steps to improve my chances. Since I can only afford a low buy-in, I've decided to stay away from the no limit hold'em events. While I have the most experience playing that game, I know that there are thousands of other young guns out there who also play that game better than any other. But there aren't so many young guns who are aces at seven-stud. I consider myself pretty rare in that regard, as the average stud player is much older than 26. The game just is not as popular these days.
And since the smaller buy-in no limit events tend to have fields through the roof and are often lotteries, I've elected to play an event that historically has had tiny fields by comparison. Last year there were 381 entrants. Given the current recession, I expect that number to stay at about the same level.
Another advantage to playing a limit event as opposed to pot limit or no limit is that the effects of getting unlucky on one hand are limited, at least in the early rounds. Of course, as the blinds and antes increase, it can get to the point where you go broke in one hand in stud just like in no limit hold'em. But early on, the big coolers and bad beats won't hurt as much, and won't knock you out two seconds into the tournament.
This particular tournament is also good because I think a lot of the top pros will be tied up elsewhere. Event #16 starts at 5pm, but there is a $5,000 No Limit event that starts at noon the same day. With the higher buy-in, I'd expect several of the big names to be playing that tournament. I'm sure there will be some that bust out of the $5K really quickly, but hopefully that steams them up enough that they come over and play worse in the stud tourney. Even pros aren't completely immune to the effects of bad beats and extended sessions.
However, there are some factors that will be working against me in the event (outside of the obvious ones like my lack of experience in big events, lack of experience in stud tournaments as opposed to cash games, etc.). The hugest disadvantage is the sleep factor. Hundreds of thousands of World Series hopefuls have come to the big show, completely unprepared for the looooong, long hours required for these events. I have played a few long sessions in my life, but only a handful as long as this one rates to be if I survive the first day. The schedule says play will begin at 5pm and end at approximately 3am on Sunday. Then we're back at it at 2pm on Sunday!! I'll be doubly disadvantaged, because I am flying into Vegas Saturday morning at 8am (!), which means I'll have to wake up at about 5am to fly from Los Angeles.
It will take a LOT of discipline for me to rest up in my hotel room, and not try and get in on too much of the side action before the event. And, this being such a monumental step in my poker career, there is a significant chance that I'll be too amped up in the early afternoon to get any rest. So a large part of my survival will rest on my ability to avoid physically and mentally crashing at around 10pm. I think my odds of being at the top of my game in those crucial rounds are realistically slim.
I had originally wanted to play some satellites before the event, but now I'm a bit more ambivalent about it. I think winning a seat for $175 will allow me to play a lot more comfortably than ponying up the full amount. Even if I have to play two or three satellites to get the buy-in, I'll feel much better about the stakes. However, as mentioned above, all that poker action might worsen my play, as the number of hours played in one day continues to mount. I haven't decided yet what to do about it. I might play the event until I bust, and then play satellites and cash games afterwards to "retroactively" win my buy-in. Or something along those lines.
So is the whole thing worth it? I know that I will inevitably be pretty disappointed if/when I bust out of the tournament. That is the nature of tournaments -- the only person who doesn't get sent home is the winner. Even second place wishes they had done better.
But I think it's good that I am not really expecting much in the way of results. I mostly just want to get the experience under my belt, but still have a shot at winning something. This first step into a larger arena will give me a better idea of what to expect in World Series to come. And, if nothing else, I'm guaranteed to have at least a few stories to tell.
Nevertheless, I wouldn't play if I didn't think I had a chance to win.
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