Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Play the stack, not the cards.


Well, Billy got me again. I’m not sure when I became so bluffable, but at some point it happened and it has cost me a pot or two. But the style adjustment has probably been good for my bankroll in the long run.

It was late in last Sunday’s home game, and it was now three handed between Sean, Billy, and myself. I straddled on the dealer button, Sean and Billy both called from the blinds. I looked at my hole cards and saw pocket Jacks. Fishhooks. Beautiful hand for a straddle, especially when your straddle is the button. No one will believe you have anything.

I decided to play the hand tricky and just checked my option. The flop game 10-7-6 rainbow. Sean checked, and Billy fired $1 into the pot of $1.50. I figured him for hitting top pair, so I raised it up to $3.25. Sean mucked, and Billy hardly even thought before re-popping to $10 even.

Naturally, this slowed me down a little bit. I had clawed my way to the big stack on my third buy-in. I was at about $125, and Billy had another $35 or so in front of him on top of the $10. Calling wasn’t really an option – if I did, Billy was for sure pushing on the turn. Any raise I made would pretty much pot-commit him. If I laid down my overpair, I ran the serious risk of folding the best hand. What to do?

I had gotten exactly the situation that I had wanted. Straddled to create more action, dealt myself a huge hand, and gotten my opponent to make a large re-raise into me. There was no way that Billy put me on the Jacks. I had deceived him, and he had put a good chunk of his money in because of it.

But at the same time, this is a situation you usually want to avoid with an overpair. I had to decide if Billy was playing top pair really aggressively, if he had happened to flop two pair, or even if he was holding the "Mike McDermott" 8-9 for the nut straight. My deception had caused the pressure of making a decision to be put on me.

A million thoughts were running through my head at this point. I thought about Billy as a player, and about his reputation for being extremely tight and aggressive. But I also thought about how he had been using that to his advantage, bluffing and semi-bluffing more lately than he had in the past. I thought that this was one of those interesting situations where I was either very far ahead or very far behind. I wondered if he would fold to a re-raise, or if I could possibly get away with just calling in order to get more information from him later. Were my Jacks good? Why had I opted to play them so tricky? Was Billy capable of making a bluff here? Was I capable of laying this overpair down?

Apparently, I was. I mucked my Jacks face up, and Billy showed me a Q-10. I’m not sure if he was trying to tilt me or make himself appear like a loose player to Sean. Didn’t really matter – because I felt completely happy with my fold. I had laid down the best hand, but I felt like it was a solid play nonetheless. In the end, it was the stack sizes that determined my action. I was not prepared to dump a third of my stack to a player of Billy’s caliber, especially so late in the evening. If we got it all in and I lost the hand, I would have very little opportunity to get it back. When I laid down my Jacks, I was well aware of the possibility that I was tossing the best hand. But the timing just wasn’t right. I was protecting my stack, and I was unwilling to mix it up with Billy’s stack holding less than the nuts or near nuts. Furthermore, my fold gives the table even more incentive to try and steal on me later -- preferably when I'm more comfortably ahead in the hand. This time I had decided to play the man, play the stack, play the situation …

… and I think I played it pretty well.

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