Better to be Lucky than Good …

Here’s a line from the film, The Cincinnati Kid:

Lancey Howard: “Gets down to what it’s all about, doesn’t it? Making the wrong move at the right time.”

Sometimes at the poker table, it certainly feels that way. Take my situation last night at Commerce. I’d been playing stud for a while, and I had gone up big, fast. I had peaked at about $275 (including my $100 buy-in), and was now staring at about $90 in chips and wondering what the hell had happened.

The hand before, I represented a flush perfectly – patiently calling until Fifth St, upon which my board showed three clubs. I didn’t have any clubs in the hole, but given my raise on Fifth St, there was no way my opponent in the hand could know that. On Sixth St I landed a fourth club, and my bet should easily have pushed the other guy out of the hand with anything less than two-pair. I missed the river, but watching him I saw that he did as well, so I bet again. It was a perfectly executed bluff, but he still called with only a pair of tens, and took down the pot.

I was steaming. I couldn’t believe it! I had represented a flush impeccably! Even if I had only paired the Ace or King that I had showing, he would have been beat. No way he should make that call on the river with just a pair of tens. So the next hand, I allowed myself to tilt a little.

I picked up A-Q-J unsuited (definitely a playable hand), so when the deuce immediately to my right brought it in, I limped for a dollar. The guy to my immediate left (the same guy that “chased” on me) completed the bet, and four other players stuck around. When it got back to me, I re-raised. I knew the appropriate play was to simply call the bet and see Fourth St. I knew that an early-round raise in stud should really be reserved for trying to push people out of the pot, and that, given the money the players had already invested, nobody was going anywhere. In short, I knew it was a donk-raise, but I made it anyway.

The Chaser (as I’ll call him from now on) bumped it up to three bets ($12 bucks), and everyone in between called. I, still tilting, capped it at $16. Everyone called, and to Fourth St we went.

Fourth St did not look promising for me. I saw all three of the remaining aces dealt to players other than myself. And since my Ace was my door card, the Chaser was now confident that I didn’t have a pair. The King I picked up gave me a gutshot straight-draw which, given the size of the pot, was enough to call the Chaser’s bet. Unfortunately, one of the Tens I needed had already been folded. My outs were disappearing left and right.

Fifth St wasn’t exactly the card I was looking for, either. I picked up another jack, giving me a pair. But I saw two of the remaining Tens in the deck, along with one of the queens, get dealt to other players. Usually in stud, you want to be continually picking up outs, not losing them. Luckily, the Chaser lost a bit of his bravado with so many players still in the pot, so the hand was checked around.

Sixth St gave me a bit of hope. The case 10 was dealt, giving one of the players a pair of tens and high hand showing. He checked his pair, though, and it was checked to me. I no longer had any chance for a straight, but I had picked up another queen, and was beginning to think I might have a shot at the pot with my queens and jacks. I bet my two pair, only to be raised by the Chaser. For the first time in a while I checked out his board, and noticed that all four of his cards showing were diamonds.

Oh, sh*t.

Everyone else in the hand (finally!) decided to drop out. It got back to me, and I decided I would test him, see if he really had the flush or not. I re-raised him, making it $24 to go, and he re-raised me to make it $32. In case you didn’t know, there’s no betting limit per round when the hand gets heads up, but I was convinced now that he actually had me beat. I probably needed a full house to win the hand. I simply called his bet rather than re-raising him, and began praying that I would hit one of my three remaining outs.

The dealer flips a card my way, and then flips one to the Chaser.

I’m first to act (my Ace-high is now high hand). I placed my fingers carefully over the card, lifted up the edge and took a peek.

It was the Queen of hearts – and the case Queen. I now had queens full.

Got him.

I examined my board, and realized how innocuous it looked. High cards, yes, but no pair. Only two suited cards. I thought, “He can’t put me on a hand better than his flush, so he’ll likely bet if given the opportunity.”

I checked. He bet. I raised. He looked for a long time at my board and then re-raised me. I re-raised him with my last $8. He called. I turned over my hand, stood up, and breathed for the first time in about forever. He exploded. The dealer pushed the chips my way, and I got to stackin’.

A runner-runner-runner full house. A $250 pot.

Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good.