Re: Top Pair Madness

“Once you’ve mastered the basic elements of a winning poker formula, psychology becomes the key ingredient in separating break-even players from players who win consistently. The most profitable kind of poker psychology is the ability to read your opponents.”
-Mike Caro, Caro’s Book of Poker Tells
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Allow me to briefly revisit the hand from my most recent blog entry:

“I tried every trick I knew to get a read on him. I got in his ear, asked him if he was bluffing. He just stared right at me, and didn’t say a word.”

Billy had just given me a huge tell. A HUGE one. I should have taken down this pot, based on the information Billy gave me not with his words, but with his body language.

I blew it!

If you’re not exactly sure what information Billy gave away about his hand, don’t feel bad. I missed it too, at the time. But last night I happened to be flipping through Caro’s Book, which explains many common tells and shows pictures to demonstrate what they look like. I happened to see a photo that looked a bit familiar, and I paused to read about this tell.

The player was staring menacingly at his opponent, who was about to place a bet. Caro categorizes this as a “Strong means Weak” tell. His logic is that a player that appears threatening usually is not. Such a player is trying to intimidate, in order to discourage a bet with his body language. He will often be holding a weak or marginal hand, but wants to appear strong. His body language says, “I have you beat, so if you put money in the pot, watch out!”

I recognized the body language of the photo as very similar to that of Billy the other day. This should have clued me in to the strength of Billy’s hand. His stare was a pretty good indication that he wasn't holding a monster, and wanted to take down the pot right then and there. On the other hand, had Billy appeared disinterested or nonchalant, it would typically indicate that he had a hand so strong that he wanted a call from me, and did not want to discourage my bet.

It should have been so simple!

Of course, we all know by now that Billy and I had the same hand. And, especially after I showed him that I also held top pair, his actions practically screamed that he wanted me to fold. Had I moved all in here, he would have had a hard time calling with just top pair. His jack kicker would have shriveled up in his eyes, and he might have laid it down. He also might have still called my all in bet, but at least I would have split the pot with him. Plus, the tough decision would have been his instead of mine.

Had I picked up on this very common tell, the session might have gone better for me. I am extra disappointed in myself, because I use the opposite maneuver as a "false tell" all the time. Since most players that appear disinterested in the action have strong hands, I will often (vs. a more experienced player) look away from the table and my opponent in order to give the impression that I want him to call. My hope is that he will pick up on the “tell,” and put me on a stronger hand than I actually have. It’s a successful enough move to make it worthwhile.

I should have realized what was going on with Billy. It cost me a nice-sized pot.

But I hope you learned something from my mistake. I’ve paraphrased Caro’s main thesis for his book by explaining the “Strong means Weak” and “Weak means Strong” concepts. How do you like that … I just saved you $20 bucks on the book, and explained concepts that should help you win a lot more.

So go do it.