A Decision on the Bubble

Yet another MTT (multi-table tournament) the other day. The top 5 places are paid. I’ve made it to the final table, and now there are 7 players remaining out of a field of about 120. I’m 4th in chips at this point, so if I can maintain this position my patience will pay off nicely. For the last few rounds I’ve been letting the smaller stacks make mistakes. I sat by quietly as they made their stands with marginal hands and either got lucky or eliminated themselves. I took down a pot here and there when monster starting hands came my way, but otherwise stayed out of the action.

Now we come to the hand I want to discuss today. I pick up 8-7 of diamonds in the big blind. The player under the gun folds, and UTG+1 (2nd to act before the flop) raises the minimum. It’s folded back to me, and I decide to call with my suited connector and see if I hit a flop.

The flop is about as good as I could hope for (short of flopping quads or some similar monster). It comes 9d-6d-3c. I’ve flopped an open-ended straight-flush draw. Several thoughts immediately occur to me. First, I start counting my outs. I have 8 cards to catch a straight, and 7 more to catch a flush. That’s a total of 15 outs, with two cards to come … roughly a 60% chance of taking down the hand (assuming a straight or flush would be a winner). If my opponent doesn’t have a pair, then a 7 or 8 would also do it for me. Second, the flop contains mostly low cards, so it’s possible that the flop missed my opponent entirely, assuming he raised with high cards. Even if he’s holding an overpair, I would still be a slight favorite to win the hand. Third, I notice the size of the pot. It contains about 2,000 chips, and after calling the raise preflop, I have about 9,000 left, and the blinds are 200 and 400 at this point. So picking up this pot would help me to last a few more rounds of blinds, at the least..

In short, this flop has given me some nice draws, so I’m pretty sure I’m going to play it. However, all I really have at this point is 8-high. In addition, my opponent has me covered. As such, I wouldn’t mind taking down the pot without a fight. So I have to bet enough to let my opponent know that I mean business, and to scare him off any desire to chase. I decide to bet the size of the pot – 2,000 – and see how he responds.

He moves all in, meaning a call here would put my tournament life at stake. Here I have a huge decision to make; should I go for the win and try to double my stack holding a hand that’s a slight favorite? Toss my remaining 7,000 into a pot of 13,000 (not quite getting 2:1 on my money)? Or should I concede this hand and go back to my strategy of waiting for others to bust out? If I fold here, I will still have 7,000 in chips … with the big blind around 400, a fold here will not cripple me. It will be difficult, but not impossible for me to fight my way back into it. Should I risk it all or live to fight another day?

I make the call, and I miss. His pocket Jacks hold up for him. I’m knocked out on the bubble.

What should I have done? What do you guys think – on the bubble, is it better to get it all in with the best hand, or hope that by playing passively I can ease my way into the money? Did I make a poor decision here? Holla back, youngin’ …